Analysis and Prospect of the hottest global pulp a

Analysis and outlook of the global pulp and paper market

1. New changes in the pulp and paper market in the past few years

let's first review the changes in the pulp and paper market in the past few years. From 1980 to 2007, the global consumption of cultural paper (excluding paper) has been growing continuously. But since 2007, there has been a great change. The consumption of global cultural paper has reached the peak. After 2007, it began to drop significantly

look at paper again. The situation of paper is even worse. As early as 2000, the global consumption of paper has reached its peak. Since 2007, due to the electronization of paper, the consumption of paper has also begun to decline significantly. Paper in many developed countries and regions began to decline as early as 1995, such as the United States, South Korea, Japan and Europe

the consumption history of different countries is also different. Since the opening of the software function of the electronic tensile testing machine in the United States in 2000, the consumption of cultural paper has declined, while Japan has declined since 2005, while Western Europe has declined since 2007. In contrast, consumption in China continues to grow. The past experience of developed countries can tell us that our consumption will be lower than predicted in the future

this is mainly due to the impact of electronic media on cultural paper consumption. Per capita cultural paper consumption in mature markets has begun to decline

we talked about the decline of the US market before. In 2007, 81 pulp and paper enterprises in the United States stopped production, of which 2 changed their products through reconstruction, 7 switched to clean energy production, 49 were still finding ways, and 23 had completely withdrawn from the market. The main reasons are: reduced demand, aging equipment, rising prices of raw materials, reorganization under the bankruptcy law, and the pressure of shareholders to pursue profits. Judging from the current market situation, the number of closed enterprises will further increase

2. Demand forecast for paper and paperboard

we have made a forecast for the future market. By 2020, the world demand for paper and paperboard is expected to grow by 1.9% annually. Toilet paper, carton board, corrugated base paper and white paperboard will grow relatively fast. There is still some room for growth in cultural paper, but paper will not grow any more

moreover, structural factors (mature markets, ITC challenges, and the transfer of the packaging industry from the west to the southeast) have hindered the recovery of demand in developed countries, while emerging markets such as China and other Asian countries will continue to grow rapidly until 2020

emerging market countries will support the demand growth of the entire paper industry, of which China will be important. From 2009 to 2020, China and India will be the main drivers of global paper demand, and nearly 70% of the global growth will come from these two countries

3. China is facing a series of challenges on how to maintain the growth of the paper industry

the leapfrog growth of the Chinese market has also brought some problems. For example, the problem of overcapacity, from 2007 to 2008, China's new capacity accounted for 80% of the world's new capacity. From 2009 to 1012, although this proportion decreased, it still accounted for the main proportion. In addition, the problem of overcapacity is not only facing China, but also the whole Asia, and it will become more and more serious

today, the equipment level of Chinese enterprises is on a par with that of other countries and regions in the world. Many paper mills already have the most advanced and international scale equipment, so the company's strategy should also be upgraded. Before, enterprises used to increase investment to occupy the market. Now companies should pay more attention to other strategic ways, such as machine operation and management. What are the specific contents?

the first is to improve The operating efficiency of the machine, including reducing energy and water consumption, and designing major performance indicators and equipment maintenance plans, can improve efficiency. Second, we can pay attention to the improvement of the management level of the whole paper mill, including supply chain management, successful market development and appropriate procurement plan

how can the paper mill improve its operation management? First of all, we must understand the operation of the whole factory, and then compare with other high-level domestic and foreign factories to find out their own gap, understand the reasons for the gap, and finally find the best solution. The promotion of the solution is also very important

improvement of asset performance and operation management methods of pulp and paper enterprises

we found that in fact, every paper mill has room for progress. Bailey has many successful cases in Europe and America, which has improved the operation and management level of enterprises requiring EU countries to immediately restrict the use of disposable plastic bags. From our experience in filing cases, factories can increase their total sales by 5% - 10% through improved management or less investment, which is what Chinese paper mills can pay attention to

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